Now Comes The Meat Of The Merger

Anyone who reads this weeks media reports on the Ticketmaster/Live Nation merger might think it’s all doom and gloom.  One might think the merger is not going to happen.  However, this just means we are getting to the fun part. 

The United Kingdom’s version of anti-trust regulators released their preliminary report on the merger yesterday.  Of course it was critical.  Of course it currently shows Live Nation/Tickmaster controlling everything.  The U.S. report is due shortly and they will most likely mirror the U.K. report.  Why is anyone surprised by this?

During the Senate hearings on the merger, all the assets of both companies were exposed.  Discussion of what would happen with these assets already came up. Everyone was in agreement that both companies would have to give stuff up.  We discussed all this months ago.  Have you noticed that nothing has been given up yet?  Now that the Government reports are coming out, you will see what happens with some of these assets.  This is when the real negotiation begins.  For example, I bet Tickmaster will sell or spin off TicketsNow and Live Nation will dump its ticketing system. Both companies are not stupid.  As much as they would like to, they know they can’t completely control the promoting/ticketing world. 

The U.K. commission left the door wide open.  In their statement they said they would consider possible “remedies”.  This is where the meat and potatoes come in.

I still believe this merger is going to happen.  In the weeks ahead you will see changes announced. Live Nation and Ticketmaster properties spun off or sold.  Both companies have been waiting for this moment.  They have the “remedies” waiting in the wings.

Have a great weekend!

The Live Nation/Ticketmaster Senate Hearing

I did watch the Senate hearing the other day on the Ticketmaster / Live Nation merger.  That was the most interested I have ever been at watching C-SPAN.   Usually it is like watching paint dry.

I had to laugh at the beginning of the hearing.  The Senators all get to make an opening statement.  They just love to hear themselves talk and compliment each other.   They also like to say stupid things because they know they are on TV.

The cast of characters representing the concert industry was the right mix.  Of course you had Michael Rapino representing Live Nation and Irving Azoff representing Ticketmaster.  But you also had a few of the smaller promoters from the industry. Jam Production’s Jerry Mickelson and independent promoter Seth Hurwitz did a great job of giving their side.  They are part of a very small group.  They are on the endangered species list.  They have very legitimate concerns about this merger.  For example will they be able to do business in Ticketmaster venues if the merger goes through? 

I was surprised at Michael Rapino’s testimony.  I have never met him but I understand he is a very smart and talented guy.  He runs a very big and powerful company and has to deal with a lot of stress.  Yet, he seems nervous and distracted.  Every time someone walked by him he looked up and seemed to lose his place on his written statement.  I have been to senate hearings.  People are always walking around. 

One interesting statement that came up was when someone mentioned (maybe Seth Hurwitz) that Live Nation’s ticket system was a failure.  I took the statement that LN may have dumped the system? Michael Rapino never challenged that statement.  Did LN already dump their ticketing system?

Senator Charles Schumer went after Irving and Ticketmaster on the Bruce Springsteen issue.  While he had every right and should question that screw up, Senator Schumer didn’t seem to be up to speed with the latest news.  Ticketmaster had just settled the day before with the NJ Attorney General.  Among the settled items, TM is going to stop linking TicketsNow with Ticketmaster for a period of time.  I don’t know how long that is.  His questions did not seem to reflect this news.  Senator Schumer asked Irving if TM plans to sell TicketsNow.  Of course Irving is not going to answer that in front of Congress.  Irving did admit that “he” would not have bought TicketsNow if he was in charge of TM at that time.

Here are my predictions:

1) The merger will go through

2) Ticketmaster will dump TicketsNow.  They will need to do this for the merger to go through

3) Live Nation will dump their ticketing system (unless they already have)

4) Irving will get his “fee included” price for live event ticketing

5) Ticket prices will still be high with or without the merger until the fans make them change